CoVID 19 Worldwide Growth Rates

Updated: 3rd April 2020, 03:27 BST All graphs have been updated, and I've updated much of the commentary. I've added new graphs showing which countries have peaked and which have levelled off, but not started down again. MJH

This page presents historical SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection information. I try to present it in a way that helps inform about how the virus is progressing throughout the main outbreaks worldwide in a way that allows countries to be compared and perhaps lessons learned. The underlying infection and containment processes are complicated, and conclusions you or I may draw from these graphs are not true predictions. For that, you'd need much more data about what is being done in each country, and about how the data is collected. Comments are my interpretation only. Nevertheless, I hope you find it useful.

Mark Handley, UCL.

Contents

Graph 1: Cases: Western Europe: Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK
Graph 2: Cases: Western Europe: Italy, Switzerland, Spain, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK
Graph 3: Increases: Daily Increases, Peaked Countries: Italy, Lombardy, Austria, Taiwan, South Korea, China, Finland, Australia
Graph 4: Increases: Daily Increases, Countries with Constant Increases: Switzerland, Iceland, Luxembourg, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Thailand
Graph 5: Increases: Western Europe Daily Increases: France, USA, UK, Spain, Netherlands, Germany
Graph 6: Deaths: Deaths: Western Europe: Italy, Spain, France, Netherlands, Switzerland, UK, Germany
Graph 7: Cases: Italy, Lombardy, Switzerland, Austria
Graph 8: Cases: Nordic Region: Italy, Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, South Korea
Graph 9: Increases: Daily Increases: Italy, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Iceland, Estonia, Luxembourg
Graph 10: Cases: Italy, Belgium, Ireland, Portugal, Luxembourg
Graph 11: Cases: Deaths: Italy, France, Germany, Luxembourg
Graph 12: Cases: Italy, Greece, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Slovakia, Croatia, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia
Graph 13: Increases: Eastern Europe, Daily Increases: Italy, Greece, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Slovakia, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia
Graph 14: Cases: Italy, Estonia, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine, Russia
Graph 15: Cases: Western Europe: Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, UK, Netherlands, Sweden
Graph 16: Cases: UK: England Regions
Graph 17: Cases: UK: England Regions
Graph 18: Cases: UK: England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland
Graph 19: Cases: World: China, Italy, Iran, France, Spain, USA, South Korea, Japan
Graph 20: Cases: World: Italy, Iran, France, USA, Australia, South Korea, Singapore, Japan
Graph 21: Cases: US States: Italy, Washington, New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Colorado, Illinois, Florida, California, Texas
Graph 22: Cases: Italy, USA, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand
Graph 23: Cases: Italy, Israel, Pakistan, Turkey, South Africa, Russia, Saudi Arabia
Graph 24: Deaths: Deaths: USA: Italy, France, USA, Germany
Graph 25: Cases: South America (Andean): Italy, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina
Graph 26: Cases: South America: Italy, Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay, Paraguay, Venezuela
Graph 27: Cases: Central America: Italy, Panama, Dominican_republic, Mexico
Graph 28: Cases: South East Asia: Italy, Thailand, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia
Graph 29: Cases: Warm Countries: Italy, France, USA, Australia, Brazil, Malaysia, India, Qatar, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait
Graph 30: Cases: World: China, Italy, Iran, France, USA, South Korea, Japan

Western Europe: Italy, Spain, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK


SHOW DATA POINTS


Western Europe: Italy, Switzerland, Spain, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK


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Daily Increases, Peaked Countries: Italy, Lombardy, Austria, Taiwan, South Korea, China, Finland, Australia


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Daily Increases, Countries with Constant Increases: Switzerland, Iceland, Luxembourg, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Thailand


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Western Europe Daily Increases: France, USA, UK, Spain, Netherlands, Germany


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Deaths: Western Europe: Italy, Spain, France, Netherlands, Switzerland, UK, Germany


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Italy, Lombardy, Switzerland, Austria


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Nordic Region: Italy, Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, South Korea


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Daily Increases: Italy, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Iceland, Estonia, Luxembourg


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Italy, Belgium, Ireland, Portugal, Luxembourg


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Deaths: Italy, France, Germany, Luxembourg


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Italy, Greece, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Slovakia, Croatia, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia


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Eastern Europe, Daily Increases: Italy, Greece, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Slovakia, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia


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Italy, Estonia, Belarus, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine, Russia


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Western Europe: Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, UK, Netherlands, Sweden


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UK: England Regions


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UK: England Regions


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UK: England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland


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World: China, Italy, Iran, France, Spain, USA, South Korea, Japan


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World: Italy, Iran, France, USA, Australia, South Korea, Singapore, Japan


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US States: Italy, Washington, New York, New Jersey, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Colorado, Illinois, Florida, California, Texas


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Italy, USA, UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand


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Italy, Israel, Pakistan, Turkey, South Africa, Russia, Saudi Arabia


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Deaths: USA: Italy, France, USA, Germany


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South America (Andean): Italy, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Argentina


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South America: Italy, Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay, Paraguay, Venezuela


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Central America: Italy, Panama, Dominican_republic, Mexico


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South East Asia: Italy, Thailand, Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia


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Warm Countries: Italy, France, USA, Australia, Brazil, Malaysia, India, Qatar, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait


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World: China, Italy, Iran, France, USA, South Korea, Japan


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Thoughts

While you're sitting pondering your mortality, think how astounding it is that one single viral particle from a bat can replicate so far, so fast, and cause so much trouble! Biology is truly amazing!

FAQ

Q: Where does the data come from?

Where possible, the data comes from the relevant national authorities, as they tend to be more up to date. In some cases I'm using the WHO daily briefing, but they lag the national authorities somewhat. The wikipedia pages contain links to the national authorities. Some are Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Norway Qatar, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Switzerland, UK,

Q: Can I have your data?

My data is on github.

A more complete dataset is the Johns Hopkins one. It tends to lag the national data sources and the WHO, but it is complete and machine readable.

Q: Can I use your graphs?

Yes, they're under a CC0 "No rights reserved" license. You can use them for any purpose. I'd prefer you link back here though, as the explanations add important context.

Q: Different countries are testing at different rates. How can you compare the data?

So long as the fraction of actual cases being detected does not change, this does not affect any inference we can make about the growth rate. 35% growth is still 35% growth, whether we measure 100% of the cases or 50%.

If, for example, Italy is detecting 50% of the cases and the US is detecting 25% of cases, this affects any predictions of how far the US is behind Italy At 35% growth, cases double every 2.5 days, so this undersampling would show the US 2.5 days further behind than it really is.

Likely no-one except Korea and Singapore are getting close to 100% of cases. Probably everyone is detecting at least 20% of cases, because those require medical attention. We don't really know what fraction of cases are missed, but the difference in sampling between countries might skew the delays by a few days in either direction.

Q: Comparing with Italy as a whole is flawed. Shouldn't you be comparing with Lombardy?

Perhaps. Certainly cases in Italy are concentrated in the North at the moment. Lombardy is running about seven days ahead of the rest of the country, as measured by cases per million inhabitants. I've shown this in graph 3. The problem is that cases in some other countries, notably France, Spain and the USA, are also concentrated, so comparing these entire countries with Lombardy is biased in the other direction. These graphs give a crude indication, but they're never going to be able to track problems down to the local level, where an individual town is overwhelmed by cases before this becomes commonplace in a country. Just remember, to compare with Lombardy, a rough approximation is to move the Italy curve seven days to the right.

Q: Shouldn't you break out China by province?

At the moment I'm only showing China on the graphs that show absolute counts, not counts per million inhabitants. As the vast majority of Chinese cases were in Hubei, there's not a great deal of difference on these graphs between showing Hubei and showing all of China. The population of Hubei province is around 57 million, which is roughly the same as Italy. Thus the data for China is reasonably comparable with the data for Italy.

The Chinese data is somewhat suspect in the early days, so it's not very good for comparison until the epidemic gets a fair way along. Mostly I'm using Italy to provide a model for how other places might progress, as it's a better fit. But as of March 16th, I've changed the last (linear) graph to use the Chinese data to show one possible direction that Italy might follow.

Elsewhere in China, cases that arose were stamped on quickly, and pretty much all of China shut down until that was complete. In Europe we failed to learn from that model, so we're all much further along than Beijing, Shanghai, or similar provinces ever got.

Q: Why didn't you show my country?

A1. Until the number of cases reaches around 100, the data tends to be too noisy to draw conclusions

A2. The graphs are pretty cluttered as it is.

A3. I'll add more as I find time.

Q: You aren't an epidemiologist. Why should I listen to you?

You probably shouldn't. I'm a computer scientist and I've spend decades analysing data, but you should talk to a real epidemiologist if you want to understand the underlying causes. Computer scientists do know a lot about exponential growth though.

Q: I'm a journalist. Will you appear on my TV show?

No. You should have a real epidemiologist on your TV show.

Mark Handley, UCL.